Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd222…17ee crypto 470 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-3%) realized −$63 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%167W / 301L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$190
sports 4% +$3
other 1% +$3
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.4% -21.7% 40% 30% +0.8%
≤30d 104 -14.3% -22.5% 26% 22% -26.4%
≤90d 456 -13.1% -21.4% 34% 28% -17.6%
all 468 -11.8% -20.2% 36% 30% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 30% -16.9%
10% -27.8% 25% -24.8%
15% -34.8% 22% -32.1%
20% -41.2% 19% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses167 / 301
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)468 / 470
History coverage105d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 31 $2 $0 -4%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $5 $0 -3%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $2 $0 -30%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? May 31 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 31 $3 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 31 $3 −$1 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 31 $7 −$3 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $2 +$1 +54%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 30 $1 $0 -23%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 30 $7 +$3 +36%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $1 −$1 -53%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $6 $0 -4%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $30 −$2 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 25 $7 −$4 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 25 $7 −$6 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 25 $2 +$3 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 25 $7 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 25 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 25 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 25 $5 $0 +5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 +$8 +399%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 24 $5 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 24 $10 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 2h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $11 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 5h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 15d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 15d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 15d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 15d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL Team Vitality 67¢ $5 15d
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang SELL Sorana Cirstea 79¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 14¢ $1 15d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 68¢ $5 15d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.58 · official $1.58 (match) · 1749 history records