Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd222…750f other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$44 (-25%) realized −$38 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$75
sports 35% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -49.3% -54.2% 23% 23% -73.7%
≤30d 13 -49.3% -54.2% 23% 23% -73.7%
≤90d 13 -49.3% -54.2% 23% 23% -73.7%
all 13 -49.3% -54.2% 23% 23% -73.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.2% 23% -73.7%
10% ← realistic here -58.5% 15% -76.2%
15% -62.5% 8% -78.5%
20% -66.2% 8% -80.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 46¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-22%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Norway leading at halftime? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $18 −$16 -85%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +223%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$18 -90%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 −$9 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 11m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $15 23m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 32m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 33m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 33m
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 88¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $10 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $2 29h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 3¢ $1 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 31h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.06 · official $28.06 (match) · 31 history records