trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -5.6% | -14.6% | 25% | 0% | -11.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -5.6% | -14.6% | 25% | 0% | -11.3% |
| all | 25 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 52% | 0% | -10.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.7% | 0% | -10.4% |
| 10% | -19.2% | 0% | -19.0% |
| 15% | -27.0% | 0% | -26.8% |
| 20% | -34.2% | 0% | -34.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 87¢ | 86¢ | $33 | $33 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 24 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 24 | $58 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 02 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 01 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 01 | $9 | −$5 | -50% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 29 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 01 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Jul 01 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? | May 22 | $12 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? | May 21 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? | May 20 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? | May 19 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? | May 17 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | May 17 | $12 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? | Apr 27 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? | Apr 27 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Apr 26 | $15 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 05 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 04 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 31 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 29 | $15 | $0 | +0% |