Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd21d…a718 crypto 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-3%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate69%74W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -3.6% -12.8% 68% 42% -14.8%
≤30d 108 -3.5% -12.7% 69% 41% -13.9%
≤90d 108 -3.5% -12.7% 69% 41% -13.9%
all 108 -3.5% -12.7% 69% 41% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 41% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 21% -22.2%
15% -28.7% 15% -29.7%
20% -35.7% 10% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses74 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 284 history records