Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd21d…c529 politics 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,302 (-1%) realized −$1,302 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate24%42W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,363per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$25
14 days−$210
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$129
other 32% −$241
sports 14% −$921
culture 4% −$12
world 2% −$53
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 54 -1.6% -11.0% 13% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 106 -8.4% -17.1% 9% 5% -10.6%
all 173 +2.8% -7.0% 24% 11% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 11% -10.0%
10% -15.9% 11% -18.6%
15% -24.0% 10% -26.5%
20% -31.5% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,846) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses42 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,363
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,431 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,214 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,901 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $661 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $131 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $4,049 −$5 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,810 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $740 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $4,392 −$5 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,760 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $6,844 −$7 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $78 −$78 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $3,626 −$5 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $962 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,102 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,038 −$5 -0%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 03 $59 +$62 +105%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $5,213 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $821 −$1 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $68 +$44 +65%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $305 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $355 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $324 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $355 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,461 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,438 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,365 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,402 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $2,769 −$3 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $5,512 −$6 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $76 +$36 +48%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $63 +$64 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $341 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $342 4h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $808 22h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $809 24h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $728 25h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $729 27h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $865 42h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 46h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $330 47h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $641 47h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $330 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $642 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $740 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $741 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $629 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $630 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $660 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $661 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $757 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $759 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $575 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $576 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $719 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $720 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $789 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $791 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $605 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $606 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $739 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $740 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 646 history records