Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:02:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D2
0xd218…b5c9
sports · 257 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$201,229 -66%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9,196 · open −$313,439
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$270,260
Realized−$9,196
Unrealized−$313,439
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses76 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$2,299
Open positions495
Markets (closed)162 / 257
Avg bet$1,183
Trades / day3030.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 495 History 162 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,196
7 days−$9,196
14 days−$9,196
30 days−$9,196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $35,968 $37,278 +$1,310 (+4%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $12,057 $12,348 +$291 (+2%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 80¢ $10,567 $11,200 +$632 (+6%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 18¢ 19¢ $9,284 $9,823 +$539 (+6%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $7,783 $7,846 +$64 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Under 94¢ 96¢ $7,214 $7,415 +$201 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 17¢ 20¢ $6,422 $7,399 +$977 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $5,871 $6,612 +$740 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $5,046 $5,722 +$675 (+13%)
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 23¢ 41¢ $2,613 $4,708 +$2,094 (+80%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 51¢ $4,574 $4,569 −$6 (-0%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Under 79¢ 80¢ $4,493 $4,560 +$67 (+1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 30¢ 40¢ $3,429 $4,498 +$1,070 (+31%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $4,061 $4,089 +$28 (+1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $4,056 $4,024 −$32 (-1%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $3,618 $3,649 +$31 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 66¢ $3,398 $3,589 +$192 (+6%)
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Under 81¢ 85¢ $3,420 $3,589 +$169 (+5%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? No 94¢ 95¢ $3,320 $3,355 +$35 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 78¢ 81¢ $3,096 $3,215 +$119 (+4%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Under 91¢ 94¢ $2,787 $2,874 +$87 (+3%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 81¢ $2,238 $2,813 +$575 (+26%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 27¢ $318 $2,704 +$2,386 (+750%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $1,909 $2,439 +$529 (+28%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 61¢ $1,905 $1,933 +$29 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 12 $119 −$69 -58%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Thanapet Chanta Jun 12 $4,378 +$11,028 +252%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 12 $874 −$820 -94%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $805 +$67 +8%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $144 +$319 +221%
ITF Maanshan: Hanyi Liu vs Kokoro Isomura Jun 12 $2 +$5 +194%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 12 $14 +$52 +383%
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Natsuki Yoshimoto Jun 12 $262 +$470 +179%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $1,578 +$131 +8%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $2,053 −$76 -4%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $291 +$21 +7%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1,980 +$98 +5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,637 −$596 -23%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $233 +$8 +3%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $136 +$3 +2%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Kosuke Ogura Jun 12 $181 −$113 -62%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $539 +$361 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3,255 −$3 -0%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $306 +$24 +8%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $781 +$832 +106%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $95 −$31 -32%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $232 −$112 -48%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $331 −$82 -25%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $53 −$28 -52%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 12 $867 −$713 -82%
ITF Wichita: Blake Ellis vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 12 $1,420 −$537 -38%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $489 −$489 -100%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $190 −$190 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Giovana Schincariol Delatorre Barbosa vs Carolina Alves Jun 12 $983 −$983 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $251 −$251 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,592 −$931 -58%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Noah Zamora vs Spencer Johnson Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Benjamin O'connell vs Matic Kriznik Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $355 +$5 +1%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Gus Grumet vs Tristan Stringer Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
ITF Wichita: Andrew Fenty vs Thanaphat Boosarawongse Jun 12 $116 −$9 -8%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Alan Magadan Jun 12 $112 −$112 -100%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 12 $316 −$228 -72%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$329,992
sports 28% +$4,051
economics 1% +$142
politics 0% +$3,164
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Anja Stankovic BUY Marie Mettraux 31¢ $7 0m
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $1 1m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 83¢ $9 1m
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka BUY Viktoria Morvayova 24¢ $0 1m
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka BUY Viktoria Morvayova 24¢ $2 1m
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European BUY against All authority 15¢ $1 2m
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European BUY against All authority 16¢ $1 2m
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka BUY Viktoria Morvayova 16¢ $0 5m
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka BUY Viktoria Morvayova 18¢ $72 5m
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka BUY Viktoria Morvayova 20¢ $1 5m
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka BUY Viktoria Morvayova 20¢ $1 5m
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka BUY Viktoria Morvayova 20¢ $1 5m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 83¢ $21 6m
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka BUY Viktoria Morvayova 20¢ $0 6m
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka BUY Viktoria Morvayova 20¢ $1 6m
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka BUY Viktoria Morvayova 20¢ $1 6m
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese BUY Sara Milanese 14¢ $13 8m
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese BUY Sara Milanese 18¢ $1 8m
ITF Kayseri: Laurence Teunissen vs Haydar Cem Gokpinar BUY Laurence Teunissen 40¢ $1 9m
ITF kiseljak: Vladyslav Orlov vs Alen Mujakic BUY Alen Mujakic 28¢ $1 10m
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 74¢ $3 10m
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Keshav Chopra BUY Keshav Chopra 10¢ $2 11m
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $101 12m
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 68¢ $34 12m
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito BUY Sara Saito 68¢ $34 12m
ITF Wuning: Varvara Panshina vs Sara Saito BUY Varvara Panshina 25¢ $0 13m
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese BUY Sara Milanese 14¢ $7 13m
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese BUY Sara Milanese 14¢ $7 13m
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese BUY Sara Milanese 14¢ $7 13m
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Sara Milanese BUY Sara Milanese 14¢ $7 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +19.5% +8.1% 47% 32% -14.7%
≤30d 162 +19.5% +8.1% 47% 32% -14.7%
≤90d 162 +19.5% +8.1% 47% 32% -14.7%
all 162 +19.5% +8.1% 47% 32% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3030.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.1% 32% -14.7%
10% -2.2% 25% -22.8%
15% ← realistic here -11.7% 20% -30.3%
20% -20.3% 15% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270,259.70 · official $288,126.03 · 3500 history records