Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D2 0xd20b…1145 politics 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$2
economics 25% −$1
other 8% $0
sports 8% $0
world 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 11 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage80d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 17 $204 −$1 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $102 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $103 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 06 $102 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $104 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $104 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $104 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $104 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 98¢ $100 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $101 12h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $101 7d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 9d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 19d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $102 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $102 30d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $102 32d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $102 33d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $102 37d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $103 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $103 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $102 43d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 61d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 62d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $104 63d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $104 63d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $104 70d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $104 70d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $104 74d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $104 75d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $104 79d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $104 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records