Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D2 0xd20b…3a20 other 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,373 (+6%) realized +$2,373 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%89W / 80L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$176est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$695
7 days+$1,517
14 days+$2,120
30 days+$2,099
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$966
sports 29% +$1,111
other 29% +$135
politics 4% −$26
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +12.2% +1.5% 57% 45% -2.0%
≤30d 107 +4.7% -5.3% 55% 45% -3.0%
≤90d 169 +2.3% -7.5% 53% 46% -4.5%
all 169 +2.3% -7.5% 53% 46% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 46% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 39% -13.6%
15% -24.4% 31% -21.9%
20% -31.8% 21% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$69 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,373
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses89 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$176
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 172
History coverage55d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $233 −$1 -0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $623 +$77 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $119 +$92 +78%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $148 −$66 -45%
France leading at halftime? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1,628 −$339 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 17 $165 −$88 -53%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $90 +$101 +113%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,047 −$22 -2%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $603 −$33 -6%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $122 +$68 +56%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $46 −$9 -20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$57 +110%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $102 −$1 -1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $293 +$123 +42%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,220 +$294 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $457 +$41 +9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $98 −$44 -45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $548 +$116 +21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $388 +$166 +43%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $735 +$40 +6%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $776 +$32 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $1,330 +$152 +11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $704 −$10 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $471 −$133 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $340 +$120 +35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $949 +$257 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $2,248 +$431 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $829 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $53 −$33 -63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $27 +$30 +112%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $89 +$55 +62%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$56 +112%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $52 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $434 +$168 +39%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 11 $145 −$43 -30%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 11 $240 −$96 -40%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $267 −$54 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $212 −$34 -16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $100 +$47 +47%
England leading at halftime? Jun 10 $193 +$49 +26%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $66 −$4 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $224 +$108 +48%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $178 +$61 +34%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $15 −$6 -39%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 10 $158 +$11 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $119 −$18 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $34 −$19 -56%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $55 −$33 -60%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 58¢ $210 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 58¢ $22 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $53 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $23 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $94 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 56¢ $53 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 7h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $190 8h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $21 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $44 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $25 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $9 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $41 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $100 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $20 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $2 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $52 10h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 11h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $10 11h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $102.00 · 1520 history records