Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D2 0xd20a…394d other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$337 (+14%) realized +$343 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$408per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Fees−$25est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$868now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+12.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+24.1%	+12.3%	80%	60%	+7.1%
≤30d	5	+24.1%	+12.3%	80%	60%	+7.1%
≤90d	5	+24.1%	+12.3%	80%	60%	+7.1%
all	5	+24.1%	+12.3%	80%	60%	+7.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+12.3%	60%	+7.1%
10%	+1.6%	60%	-3.1%
15%	-8.3%	40%	-12.5%
20%	-17.3%	20%	-21.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 97% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +24% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$83 vs −$42 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.85 per $1 lost it wins $7.85

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$868

Realized+$343

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$25

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$408

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$874	$868	−$6 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$925	−$42	-5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$605	+$321	+53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$20	+$5	+23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10	+$5	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 16	$10	$0	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$880	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	SELL Portugal	53¢	$883	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	54¢	$925	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$927	11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$497	12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$24	13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$25	13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$74	16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$15	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$10	16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	81¢	$20	16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$10	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$10	19h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $868.27 · official $868.27 (match) · 14 history records