Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D2 0xd20a…f70a other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3 (+23%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 54% −$2
other 46% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +259.9% +225.6% 100% 100% +225.6%
≤30d 3 +59.6% +44.4% 67% 67% +72.2%
≤90d 3 +59.6% +44.4% 67% 67% +72.2%
all 3 +59.6% +44.4% 67% 67% +72.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.4% 67% +72.2%
10% +30.6% 33% +55.7%
15% +18.0% 33% +40.7%
20% +6.4% 33% +26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +90% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +90% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.83 per $1 lost it wins $5.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 9¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$5 +260%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.16 · official $6.16 (match) · 11 history records