Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd208…2751 crypto 545 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (296 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,594 (-2%) realized −$2,594 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate63%343W / 202L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day296.4pace
Fees−$271est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$194
7 days−$1,957
14 days−$1,748
30 days−$1,748
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$934
sports 18% −$634
other 1% −$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (296 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 469 -15.2% -23.2% 67% 18% -11.0%
≤30d 545 -14.2% -22.4% 63% 21% -10.8%
≤90d 545 -14.2% -22.4% 63% 21% -10.8%
all 545 -14.2% -22.4% 63% 21% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover296.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 21% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.8% 16% -19.3%
15% -36.6% 13% -27.1%
20% -42.8% 12% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$63 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,594
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses343 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$271
Open positions0
Markets (closed)545 / 545
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$236
Trades / day296.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 545 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $370 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1,001 +$10 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $287 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $169 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $611 +$6 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $449 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $990 +$10 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $139 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $484 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $236 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $403 +$4 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $882 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $509 +$5 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $712 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $46 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $530 +$5 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $344 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $114 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $89 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $262 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $317 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $492 +$5 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $499 +$5 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $370 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $123 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $126 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $486 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $486 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $311 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $611 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $137 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $70 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $495 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $376 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records