Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd208…29e6 sports 1059 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$159 (+1%) realized +$155 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%571W / 474L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day47.3pace
Fees−$373est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$171
7 days+$444
14 days+$331
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$43
other 8% −$387
world 1% +$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 46% +20.1%
≤30d 407 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 50% -10.7%
≤90d 1045 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 53% -10.8%
all 1045 +1.7% -8.0% 55% 53% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 53% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 51% -19.4%
15% -24.9% 40% -27.1%
20% -32.2% 31% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses571 / 474
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$373
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1045 / 1059
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day47.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1045 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Linda Noskova 83¢ 80¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Magdalena Frech 52¢ 34¢ $38 $25 −$13 (-34%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Julia Grabher 71¢ 100¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+41%)
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Mia Ristic 56¢ 74¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+33%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 36¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Ann Li 50¢ 50¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 56¢ 66¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+17%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ 60¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Raphael Collignon 62¢ 96¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+54%)
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Noemi Basiletti 80¢ 22¢ $17 $5 −$12 (-72%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Daniel Galan 77¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Toby Samuel 45¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 31¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 13¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-27%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $7 +$4 +55%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $112 −$108 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +54%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$33 -72%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 +$3 +26%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$6 +32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $34 +$52 +152%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $3 +$6 +197%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $5 −$2 -37%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $11 −$4 -40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $34 +$61 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 −$29 -86%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $29 −$22 -77%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +66%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $43 +$29 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $12 +$11 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $19 +$17 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $18 +$5 +25%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $134 +$335 +249%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $2 +$3 +172%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$1 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$1 +50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $8 −$2 -27%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$18 +93%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 +$17 +56%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $7 +$2 +25%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 36¢ $2 3m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 50¢ $5 9m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 57¢ $9 10m
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 54¢ $6 10m
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 13¢ $2 13m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 52¢ $6 16m
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 49¢ $6 18m
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua BUY Linda Noskova 83¢ $32 20m
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Lucrezia Stefanini 61¢ $8 20m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Arthur Rinderknech 56¢ $1 21m
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $18 42m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 56¢ $6 50m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 56¢ $12 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $12 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 80¢ $5 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 77¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $6 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 52¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 53¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Magdalena Frech 54¢ $9 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $4 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 71¢ $17 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 62¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Toby Samuel 45¢ $3 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $3 6h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 68¢ $4 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $3 6h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $3 6h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $7 7h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.47 · official $186.69 · 3500 history records