Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd208…1d09 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.9% -8.7% 79% 79% -2.4%
≤30d 19 +0.9% -8.7% 79% 79% -2.4%
≤90d 19 +0.9% -8.7% 79% 79% -2.4%
all 19 +0.9% -8.7% 79% 79% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 79% -2.4%
10% -17.5% 68% -11.7%
15% -25.4% 11% -20.3%
20% -32.8% 0% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$62 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $68 +$28 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $89 −$88 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $218 +$68 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $186 +$42 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $152 +$45 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $118 +$45 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$52 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 29 $46 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $43 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 28 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 28 $37 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 28 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $47 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $60 −$59 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $147 +$44 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 27 $47 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $44 +$10 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records