Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D2 0xd207…e252 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$48 (+36%) realized +$49 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1
other 39% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +62.8% +47.3% 67% 67% +56.0%
≤30d 3 +62.8% +47.3% 67% 67% +56.0%
≤90d 3 +62.8% +47.3% 67% 67% +56.0%
all 3 +62.8% +47.3% 67% 67% +56.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.3% 67% +56.0%
10% +33.2% 67% +41.1%
15% +20.3% 67% +27.5%
20% +8.5% 67% +15.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$7 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.63 per $1 lost it wins $6.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage5d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $50 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $35 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $32 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.66 · official $49.59 (match) · 8 history records