Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd207…5ab7 other 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$6
politics 24% −$5
economics 6% −$1
sports 5% −$14
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -0.9% -10.3% 14% 11% -9.6%
all 93 -0.9% -10.3% 14% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 11% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 11% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 10% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage87d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $85 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $396 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 29 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $422 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $285 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $423 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 14 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $213 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $208 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $232 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 02 $228 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $232 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 20 $223 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $220 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $443 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $455 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $463 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $234 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $399 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $564 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 11 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $380 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $198 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 4h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 100¢ $85 12h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 25h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $114 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 5d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 12d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 13d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $34 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $34 22d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $40 24d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 25d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $53 25d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 28d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $91 28d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $34 29d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $34 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 31d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 31d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.32 · official $198.32 (match) · 260 history records