Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd207…c366 sports 371 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$972 (-4%) realized −$929 · open −$43
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%194W / 175L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$33
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,073
other 8% +$94
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% +$15
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +6.3% -3.9% 50% 50% -14.9%
≤30d 24 +9.3% -1.1% 54% 54% -8.8%
≤90d 24 +9.3% -1.1% 54% 54% -8.8%
all 369 -6.1% -15.0% 53% 47% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 47% -13.1%
10% -23.1% 44% -21.4%
15% -30.6% 42% -29.0%
20% -37.4% 37% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$43 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$929
Unrealized−$43
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses194 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)369 / 371
History coverage252d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 30¢ $99 $56 −$43 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 24 $27 −$26 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $112 −$50 -44%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $35 +$40 +114%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $23 +$13 +55%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 −$27 -53%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $71 −$21 -29%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$13 +50%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$12 -58%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Spr Jun 23 $18 +$7 +40%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 −$4 -16%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$15 +60%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $25 +$16 +65%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $22 +$25 +114%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5) Jun 18 $10 +$10 +108%
Hornets vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5 Jan 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-1.5) Jan 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5 Jan 09 $56 −$56 -100%
Lakers vs. Spurs: O/U 233.5 Jan 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jan 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Jan 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 244.5 Jan 07 $50 +$52 +104%
Heat vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 122.5 Jan 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-9.5) Jan 06 $56 +$48 +85%
Grizzlies vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 123.5 Jan 05 $30 +$26 +85%
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5) Jan 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) Jan 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $100 +$122 +122%
Spread: Magic (-4.5) Jan 02 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Heat vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5 Jan 02 $300 −$300 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets: O/U 216.5 Jan 01 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Jan 01 $175 −$175 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Thunder: O/U 232.5 Jan 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-6.5) Jan 01 $20 −$8 -41%
Pistons vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 119.5 Jan 01 $9 +$8 +89%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Dec 31 $100 +$49 +49%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers Dec 31 $100 +$75 +75%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Dec 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5 Dec 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Nuggets vs. Heat: O/U 243.5 Dec 30 $100 +$88 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $100 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 35¢ $27 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 20¢ $27 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 55¢ $76 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ $35 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 62¢ $35 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $36 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 64¢ $23 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 20¢ $23 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $50 4d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 33¢ $50 4d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 45¢ $71 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $25 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $25 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 62¢ $25 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $21 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Spr SELL 99¢ $25 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $21 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 5d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Spr BUY 70¢ $18 5d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $13 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $25 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 7d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $22 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 7d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $15 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.74 · official $55.74 (match) · 702 history records