Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd205…e7fb sports 1192 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 131d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,555 (-14%) realized −$11,612 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%520W / 666L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$361est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days−$4,314
14 days−$4,225
30 days−$4,225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$6,077
other 30% −$2,612
crypto 13% −$1,402
world 0% −$208
weather 0% −$38
politics 0% +$49
culture 0% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -25.4% -32.5% 24% 24% -41.7%
≤30d 171 -21.3% -28.8% 27% 27% -38.7%
≤90d 497 -32.4% -38.8% 29% 28% -39.8%
all 1186 -11.7% -20.1% 44% 41% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 41% -21.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 36% -28.9%
15% -34.8% 35% -35.7%
20% -41.2% 33% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$64 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized−$11,612
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses520 / 666
Est. fees paid−$361
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1186 / 1192
History coverage131d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany leading at halftime? No 44¢ 76¢ $147 $252 +$105 (+72%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 40¢ $148 $120 −$28 (-19%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 35¢ 21¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $99 +$208 +210%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 +$84 +82%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $95 −$43 -46%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $31 +$228 +740%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -98%
Wimbledon ATP: Nuno Borges vs Tristan Boyer Jun 29 $49 −$48 -97%
Set 3 Winner: Zheng vs Norrie Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Kecmanovic Jun 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Set 3 Winner: Trungelliti vs Damm Jun 29 $51 +$103 +203%
Set 3 Winner: Nava vs Buse Jun 29 $81 −$81 -100%
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Jun 29 $16 −$16 -97%
Set Handicap: Brooksby (-1.5) vs Vukic (+1.5) Jun 29 $51 +$46 +90%
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 29 $31 +$69 +226%
Set 1 Winner: Mochizuki vs Basing Jun 29 $47 −$46 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs Safiullin Jun 29 $71 −$70 -99%
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $44 −$43 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $101 +$95 +93%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 28 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $101 +$77 +76%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $10 +$48 +470%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Slovenska Bistrica: Lucio Ratti vs Filip Jeff Planinsek Jun 28 $71 −$70 -98%
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $150 +$185 +123%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $21 −$20 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $51 +$94 +185%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $42 +$91 +216%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 27 $121 −$118 -98%
Plovdiv: Inaki Montes vs Sandro Kopp Jun 27 $248 +$170 +68%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Sumit Nagal Jun 27 $123 −$123 -100%
ITF Brussels: Olle Wallin vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 27 $152 +$144 +95%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $163 +$209 +128%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 26 $123 −$120 -98%
France leading at halftime? AND Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 26 $100 +$151 +151%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $62 −$60 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Marozsan vs Fokina Jun 26 $65 −$64 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $149 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $150 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $98 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 95¢ $259 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 33¢ $44 3h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $31 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 32¢ $49 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 32¢ $50 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $26 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $41 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Nuno Borges vs Tristan Boyer BUY Tristan Boyer 8¢ $49 6h
Set 3 Winner: Zheng vs Norrie BUY Zheng 47¢ $102 7h
Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Kecmanovic BUY Sinner 21¢ $51 8h
Set 3 Winner: Trungelliti vs Damm SELL Damm 100¢ $154 8h
Set 3 Winner: Trungelliti vs Damm BUY Damm 32¢ $51 8h
Set 3 Winner: Nava vs Buse BUY Nava 49¢ $81 8h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien BUY Dalibor Svrcina 7¢ $16 8h
Set Handicap: Brooksby (-1.5) vs Vukic (+1.5) SELL Brooksby 100¢ $96 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta SELL Pablo Carreno Busta 100¢ $100 9h
Set 1 Winner: Mochizuki vs Basing BUY Basing 43¢ $47 12h
Set 1 Winner: Rublev vs Safiullin BUY Rublev 59¢ $71 12h
Set Handicap: Brooksby (-1.5) vs Vukic (+1.5) BUY Brooksby 52¢ $51 13h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 30¢ $31 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.12 · official $402.12 (match) · 3500 history records