trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Feb 21 | $30,346 | −$30,346 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jul 23 | $733,607 | +$79,678 | +11% |
| Will Tim Scott win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Jul 16 | $43,911 | −$43,911 | -100% |
| Will another man win the 2024 Republican VP nomination? | Jul 11 | $15,000 | +$4,800 | +32% |
| Ethereum ETF approved by May 31? | May 24 | $320,550 | +$298,365 | +93% |
| BTC ETFs first week combined AUM under $10 billion? | Jan 21 | $373 | −$373 | -100% |
| Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15? | Jan 11 | $94,670 | +$6,309 | +7% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | no closed markets | |||||
| all | 7 | -22.5% | -29.9% | 57% | 43% | +13.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -29.9% | 43% | +13.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -36.6% | 29% | +2.6% |
| 15% | -42.7% | 14% | -7.3% |
| 20% | -48.3% | 14% | -16.4% |