Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd204…0e35 other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$17
politics 33% −$12
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$67
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 108 +0.8% -8.8% 6% 5% -9.4%
all 117 +1.6% -8.1% 9% 7% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 7% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 7% -18.1%
15% -24.9% 6% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×12.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage111d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $209 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $274 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $201 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $276 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $268 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $207 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $441 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $281 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $451 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $207 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $252 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $436 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $242 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 27 $260 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $223 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $218 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $284 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $237 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $290 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $290 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 19 $219 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $243 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $275 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $218 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $206 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $231 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $252 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $633 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $430 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $460 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $294 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $286 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $210 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 12d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 17d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $209 17d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 23d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $274 25d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $274 29d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $224 31d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $224 34d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $252 36d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $253 41d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $201 42d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $201 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $276 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $276 42d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 43d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 43d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $207 43d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $207 43d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $201 44d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $201 44d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $206 45d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $206 45d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $246 45d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $246 45d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $281 46d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $281 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 344 history records