Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

D2 0xd201…005f sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$74 (+39%) realized +$85 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown76%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day3.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+3.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+14.7%	+3.8%	50%	50%	+35.3%
≤30d	4	+14.7%	+3.8%	50%	50%	+35.3%
≤90d	4	+14.7%	+3.8%	50%	50%	+35.3%
all	4	+14.7%	+3.8%	50%	50%	+35.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.8%	50%	+35.3%
10%	-6.2%	50%	+22.3%
15%	-15.2%	50%	+10.5%
20%	-23.5%	25%	-0.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +50% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$64 vs −$27 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.32 per $1 lost it wins $2.32

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$24

Realized+$85

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage4d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day3.2

Drawdown76%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	16¢	$35	$24	−$11 (-30%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$51	+$110	+216%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	Jun 13	$40	+$17	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$15	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$10	1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$161	16h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$20	24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	29¢	$5	24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$20	24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$51	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN	BUY	8¢	$5	3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	63¢	$20	3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	77¢	$20	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.36 · official $62.75 · 13 history records