Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:49:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd201…c851 crypto 325 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate70%228W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$35
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 32% -11.8%
≤30d 325 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 42% -10.7%
≤90d 325 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 42% -10.7%
all 325 -2.1% -11.4% 70% 42% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 42% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 24% -19.2%
15% -27.6% 16% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 10% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses228 / 97
Open positions0
Markets (closed)325 / 325
History coverage30d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 325 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 06 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 912 history records