Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:11:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1fd…282c crypto 472 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-4%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%296W / 176L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$33
14 days−$43
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 -5.8% -14.7% 66% 51% -15.4%
≤30d 331 -9.4% -18.0% 64% 48% -16.8%
≤90d 472 -8.9% -17.6% 63% 49% -16.4%
all 472 -8.9% -17.6% 63% 49% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 49% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 27% -24.4%
15% -32.6% 12% -31.7%
20% -39.3% 5% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses296 / 176
Open positions0
Markets (closed)472 / 472
History coverage32d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 472 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$7 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1103 history records