Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1fd…ea0c other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized +$35 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$53
crypto 2% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-54.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -74.5% -76.9% 25% 0% -41.7%
≤30d 6 -49.3% -54.2% 33% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 6 -49.3% -54.2% 33% 0% -13.4%
all 6 -49.3% -54.2% 33% 0% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.2% 0% -13.4%
10% -58.6% 0% -21.6%
15% -62.6% 0% -29.2%
20% -66.2% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions34
Markets (closed)6 / 40
History coverage20d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $66 $55 −$11 (-16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $42 $27 −$15 (-36%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 $0 +2%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $66 +$6 +9%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 06 $36 −$2 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $62 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $44 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 3d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $22 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $38 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $320.05 · official $320.05 (match) · 94 history records