Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D1 0xd1fc…619f other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$13 (-24%) realized −$34 · open +$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip

Net edge-33%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day10.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-27.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-19.9%	-27.6%	40%	40%	-55.2%
≤30d	5	-19.9%	-27.6%	40%	40%	-55.2%
≤90d	5	-19.9%	-27.6%	40%	40%	-55.2%
all	5	-19.9%	-27.6%	40%	40%	-55.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-27.6%	40%	-55.2%
10%	-34.5%	40%	-59.5%
15%	-40.8%	20%	-63.4%
20%	-46.6%	20%	-67.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 84% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -50% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -20% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.24 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$48

Realized−$34

Unrealized+$21

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)5 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day10.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	12¢	40¢	$10	$34	+$24 (+238%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	55¢	55¢	$9	$9	−$0 (-1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5	Over	44¢	44¢	$3	$3	+$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	66¢	26¢	$4	$1	−$2 (-61%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Jun 15	$3	+$1	+23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$3	+$4	+119%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals	Jun 14	$5	−$2	-41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$14	−$14	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$4	1h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	SELL Yes	21¢	$4	1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5	BUY Over	44¢	$3	1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$9	1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	1h
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	BUY Yes	16¢	$3	27h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	16¢	$2	28h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	33¢	$1	28h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5	BUY Over	45¢	$3	29h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5	BUY Over	27¢	$2	29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$14	29h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	33¢	$5	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.51 · official $47.51 (match) · 13 history records