Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1fa…040e crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$102 (-35%) realized −$101 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$22
14 days−$86
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$45
crypto 36% −$21
sports 15% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 50% -27.6%
≤30d 30 +6.1% -4.0% 43% 40% -38.9%
≤90d 34 -3.4% -12.6% 41% 35% -40.4%
all 34 -3.4% -12.6% 41% 35% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 35% -40.4%
10% -21.0% 26% -46.1%
15% -28.6% 26% -51.3%
20% -35.6% 18% -56.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$101
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage51d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $17 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$4 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $23 −$23 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$7 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$6 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 02 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 13h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 10¢ $11 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $21 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 1¢ $7 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 1¢ $10 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 2¢ $6 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6d
France to score first vs. Senegal? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.13 · official $25.52 (match) · 78 history records