Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1f9…9966 other 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$156 (-14%) realized −$71 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%8W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$178
7 days+$124
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$51
sports 27% −$74
crypto 5% −$45
politics 0% −$2
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-42.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -10.1% -18.7% 23% 23% +3.5%
≤30d 31 -13.0% -21.3% 23% 23% -1.1%
≤90d 31 -13.0% -21.3% 23% 23% -1.1%
all 45 -36.1% -42.2% 18% 16% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.2% 16% -8.5%
10% -47.7% 13% -17.2%
15% -52.8% 11% -25.2%
20% -57.4% 11% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -73% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$8 · ×4.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 37
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage250d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $84 +$180 +215%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 −$16 -18%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $129 +$19 +15%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -10%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 −$8 -10%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 −$4 -21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -87%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $137 +$34 +24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +126%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $17 −$4 -25%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $9 +$11 +120%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$37 +188%
Will Aiemann Zahabi win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -53%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $13 $0 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 −$2 -50%
Will Michael Chandler win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$8 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $17 −$7 -40%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $85 −$21 -25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $67 −$65 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 11PM ET Oct 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 10PM ET Oct 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 8AM ET Oct 14 $9 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 9AM ET Oct 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on October 14? Oct 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 14? Oct 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Oct 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Sidemen's next video get between 3.0–3.5 million views on day 1? Oct 13 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Trump visit China by October 31? Oct 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Macron out in 2025? Oct 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 350000 Oct 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 82¢ $246 0m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 11m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 20m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 21m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 23m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 25m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 27m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 28m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 29m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 30m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 31m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 60¢ $92 32m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $71 40m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $72 42m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $74 45m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 59m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $73 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $81 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $56 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $57 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $1.26 · 96 history records