Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:42:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1f7…c8e4 other 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$162 (-8%) realized −$62 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$22
14 days−$161
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$199
other 20% −$55
sports 12% +$80
finance 6% −$3
crypto 3% −$16
politics 1% −$9
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +1.8% -7.9% 45% 41% -7.0%
≤30d 63 -0.9% -10.3% 48% 43% -19.1%
≤90d 64 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 44% -15.1%
all 64 +0.4% -9.2% 48% 44% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 44% -15.1%
10% -17.9% 38% -23.3%
15% -25.8% 31% -30.7%
20% -33.1% 28% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$17 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 33
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)64 / 73
History coverage72d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $22 $31 +$9 (+42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $30 $15 −$15 (-49%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 24¢ 5¢ $60 $13 −$47 (-78%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-43%)
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Yes 39¢ 22¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Yes 26¢ 2¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jonathan David: 3+ goals Jun 18 $20 −$12 -58%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -76%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$9 -83%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $20 +$22 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$15 +143%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 +$21 +413%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $36 +$34 +96%
Ladislav Krejčí: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Pavel Šulc: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 +$15 +152%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -11%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +180%
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$27 +105%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +117%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +139%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +56%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$24 +118%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$28 +139%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$20 +101%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 15 $50 +$20 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$30 -75%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$11 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -77%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +25%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jonathan David: 3+ goals SELL Yes 19¢ $8 1m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6m
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 SELL Over 2¢ $2 7m
Jonathan David: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $42 8m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 9m
Jonathan David: 3+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $20 9m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 65¢ $22 12m
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $25 23m
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $10 52m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $20 54m
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 56m
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $20 56m
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 59m
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $70 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 4h
Ladislav Krejčí: 1+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $40 7h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $5 12h
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 12h
Pavel Šulc: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 12h
Ladislav Krejčí: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $5 12h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 24h
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $5 25h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.54 · official $141.54 (match) · 157 history records