Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd1f7…99cc crypto 221 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$76 (+2%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%218W / 2L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$58
14 days+$73
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$68
other 4% +$3
finance 2% +$1
sports 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 +2.2% -7.6% 99% 1% -7.5%
≤30d 220 +2.4% -7.4% 99% 1% -7.4%
≤90d 220 +2.4% -7.4% 99% 1% -7.4%
all 220 +2.4% -7.4% 99% 1% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 1% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 0% -16.2%
15% -24.3% 0% -24.3%
20% -31.8% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.98 per $1 lost it wins $3.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses218 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)220 / 221
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $15 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $20 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $12 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.71 · official $14.71 (match) · 446 history records