Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1f2…9bf5 weather 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-6%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day102.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% −$124
other 3% −$5
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -6.0% -14.9% 27% 16% -18.9%
≤30d 37 -6.0% -14.9% 27% 16% -18.9%
≤90d 37 -6.0% -14.9% 27% 16% -18.9%
all 37 -6.0% -14.9% 27% 16% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 16% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 16% -26.7%
15% -30.5% 16% -33.8%
20% -37.3% 16% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day102.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30? Jun 30 $128 −$26 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? Jun 30 $143 −$9 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 30 $52 −$9 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30? Jun 30 $112 −$4 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? Jun 30 $111 −$16 -15%
Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 9 Jun 29 $41 −$5 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 30? Jun 29 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 1? Jun 29 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 1? Jun 29 $86 −$6 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 29? Jun 29 $71 −$29 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 29? Jun 29 $1 $0 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 30? Jun 29 $55 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 29? Jun 29 $4 −$3 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 29? Jun 29 $4 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 29? Jun 29 $22 −$5 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 30? Jun 29 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 29? Jun 29 $81 −$8 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 30? Jun 29 $12 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C or below on June 30? Jun 29 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? Jun 29 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 29 $17 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 29? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Jun 29 $5 +$7 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $4 +$4 +117%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 28? Jun 28 $13 +$7 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $101 −$30 -30%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 28? Jun 28 $9 −$6 -71%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 28? Jun 28 $41 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +89%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 28? Jun 28 $14 +$15 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 28? Jun 27 $9 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 28? Jun 27 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 28? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 28? Jun 27 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? Jun 27 $9 −$5 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30? SELL No 47¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30? SELL No 29¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 30? SELL Yes 70¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL No 57¢ $13 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL No 50¢ $15 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL No 78¢ $4 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL No 59¢ $14 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL No 72¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL No 59¢ $14 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? SELL No 66¢ $4 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? BUY No 73¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $14 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? BUY No 72¢ $4 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? BUY No 71¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $14 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 3h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 30? BUY No 72¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records