Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1f1…db1e other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%22W / 37L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$3
other 38% $0
politics 10% −$1
tech 7% −$2
culture 2% $0
sports 2% +$12
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -0.8% -10.3% 14% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 23% 0% -10.1%
all 59 -2.3% -11.6% 37% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 2% -9.0%
10% -20.0% 2% -17.7%
15% -27.8% 2% -25.7%
20% -34.8% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses22 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage483d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $39 −$2 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $35 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $38 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $30 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $5 $0 +10%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 2% and 5% of the vote in the South Korea Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 18–25? Apr 19 $23 $0 +1%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Apr 19 $23 $0 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days? Apr 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 16 $20 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 15 $0 $0 +9%
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $0 $0 +8%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 14 $0 $0 -8%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $0 $0 -11%
Will 'King of Kings' make less than $15m on its domestic opening weeke Apr 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 09 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $18 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 03 $18 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 03 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $2 −$1 -35%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 02 $1 $0 -10%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 01 $1 $0 -11%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 01 $3 $0 -2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 41h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $39 44h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $19 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $20 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $2 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $1 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $12 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.96 · official $34.96 (match) · 176 history records