Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1ec…baaa crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (941 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$37 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate66%51W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day941.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$49
other 18% −$25
sports 4% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (941 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +1.4% -8.3% 66% 39% -12.5%
≤30d 77 +1.4% -8.3% 66% 39% -12.5%
≤90d 77 +1.4% -8.3% 66% 39% -12.5%
all 77 +1.4% -8.3% 66% 39% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover941.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 39% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 17% -20.9%
15% -25.1% 9% -28.5%
20% -32.4% 5% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses51 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day941.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 89¢ 100¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+13%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Brazil? Jun 25 $50 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $29 −$7 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$18 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$15 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$3 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $18 +$8 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$12 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $40 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $40 +$9 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$6 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$21 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $40 −$11 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$1 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $34 −$1 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$7 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$5 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 89¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.49 · official $68.49 (match) · 1042 history records