Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1e8…b38d crypto 387 markets active 0h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,108 (+0%) realized +$1,108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate86%332W / 54L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$5,039per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$11
14 days+$100
30 days+$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$988
weather 0% −$49
other 0% −$36
finance 0% +$21
sports 0% −$4
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 90% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 38 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 129 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 1% -9.4%
all 386 -0.2% -9.7% 86% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$6,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$34 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$597
Realized+$1,108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses332 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)386 / 387
History coverage191d
Avg bet$5,039
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $598 $597 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5,897 −$25 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $4,256 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,636 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $1,786 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $4,100 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $5,880 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $761 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $5,114 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5,870 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5,863 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $11,707 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $11,683 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $5,834 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $5,827 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5,821 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $5,817 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $11,618 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5,772 +$34 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $5,769 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $5,254 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $5,760 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $5,754 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 31 $5,749 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 30 $3,620 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $5,742 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $5,732 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $1,053 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $1,150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $3,521 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $17,136 +$18 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 26 $15,837 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $8,936 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $11,357 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $5,668 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $11,317 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $6,773 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $11,266 +$15 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 19 $11,211 +$40 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 18 $5,579 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 16? May 17 $11,143 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $5,565 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 16 $5,560 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 15 $5,547 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 14 $5,526 +$21 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 12? May 12 $11,037 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 12 $11,016 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 11 $11,001 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 10 $5,494 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? May 09 $10,970 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 09 $5,476 +$5 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $163 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $3,836 22m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $481 39m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $33 40m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $765 46m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $274 57m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $222 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $2,321 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1,917 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $119 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,417 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $693 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $86 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,322 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,355 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $978 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,606 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $314 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1,637 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,636 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,858 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $999 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $999 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $400 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $4,100 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $1,786 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1,807 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $2,914 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $999 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $597.11 · official $597.11 (match) · 2778 history records