Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1e7…631f crypto 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$154 (-3%) realized −$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%88W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$522
sports 19% +$161
politics 10% −$16
other 8% +$163
world 1% −$21
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -21.3% -28.8% 50% 50% -19.9%
≤30d 6 -36.3% -42.4% 33% 33% -23.9%
≤90d 57 -31.1% -37.7% 35% 28% -62.3%
all 204 -6.1% -15.0% 43% 36% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 36% -13.3%
10% -23.2% 31% -21.6%
15% -30.6% 26% -29.1%
20% -37.4% 21% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses88 / 116
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)204 / 204
History coverage340d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 204 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $22 +$6 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $80 −$55 -69%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Jun 29 $96 +$54 +56%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $50 −$16 -32%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 27 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by bet May 19 $2 −$1 -74%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $6 +$1 +8%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by les May 19 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% May 19 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 16 $25 $0 +2%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election May 06 $1 +$4 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 25 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 25 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 25 $4 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 25 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 24 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 24 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 23 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 23 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 23 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-17? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 22 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 22 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 22 $3 +$1 +37%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 22 $16 +$2 +13%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%? Apr 22 $6 +$9 +137%
Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian p Apr 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 72¢ $31 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 19¢ $25 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 59¢ $80 2h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $80 2h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $63 7d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $63 7d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 18d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 6¢ $2 20d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $23 27d
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw SELL Yes 54¢ $23 33d
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw BUY Yes 49¢ $22 33d
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by bet SELL Yes 5¢ $0 41d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 13¢ $7 41d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 41d
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by bet BUY Yes 18¢ $2 41d
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by les SELL Yes 8¢ $2 41d
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by les BUY Yes 18¢ $4 41d
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% SELL Yes 47¢ $4 41d
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% BUY Yes 59¢ $5 41d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 36¢ $5 41d
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 41d
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 12¢ $6 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 44d
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 44d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 33¢ $9 44d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $24 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 575 history records