Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:48:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1e4…11f2 sports 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate47%55W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$144
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$9
crypto 33% −$17
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.2% +1.6% 63% 47% +6.5%
≤30d 30 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 47% -4.2%
≤90d 117 -2.6% -11.9% 47% 38% -9.8%
all 117 -2.6% -11.9% 47% 38% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 38% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 32% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 28% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 22% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses55 / 62
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage81d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 97¢ $195 $195 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1 $0 +17%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 $0 +1%
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$50 +100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $103 +$49 +48%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $102 +$111 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$28 +55%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 19 $130 +$23 +18%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $151 +$41 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$48 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $33 +$27 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $49 +$51 +104%
Busan: August Holmgren vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Clos Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Pla Apr 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $8 +$4 +46%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 13 $7 +$5 +62%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs GLYPH (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Q Apr 13 $6 +$6 +93%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Team Orange Gaming (BO1) - Prime League 1s Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Basement Bobs - Map 1 Winner Apr 13 $10 +$2 +16%
LoL: Lodis vs BOMBA Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 13 $5 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Hashiras (BO3) - European Pro League Series Apr 13 $7 $0 -1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 13 $10 +$1 +7%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League 1st Apr 13 $12 +$4 +34%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $15 +$12 +83%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Apr 13 $22 +$10 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 2 Winner Apr 13 $14 −$3 -25%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Apr 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $195 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $1 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $1 29h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY No 99¢ $1 30h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $152 2d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 67¢ $103 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $213 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY Inner Circle Esports 47¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.07 · official $197.07 (match) · 379 history records