Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1e4…d125 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (157 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$133 (+9%) realized +$127 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day157.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (157 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -26.5% -33.5% 47% 31% -24.5%
≤30d 32 -26.5% -33.5% 47% 31% -24.5%
≤90d 32 -26.5% -33.5% 47% 31% -24.5%
all 32 -26.5% -33.5% 47% 31% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover157.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.5% 31% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -39.9% 16% -31.7%
15% -45.7% 9% -38.3%
20% -51.0% 6% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$25 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$127
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day157.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 0¢ 14¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$27 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $108 −$91 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET Jun 22 $109 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $63 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $33 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $109 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $27 +$9 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $197 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $110 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $104 −$49 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $58 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 22 $39 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $44 +$21 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $64 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $37 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $22 +$14 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $27 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $34 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $9 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.30 · official $7.17 (match) · 171 history records