Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd1e2…ca0c other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$71 (+15%) realized +$77 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$49
sports 4% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +54.0% +39.3% 83% 83% +6.8%
≤30d 12 +54.0% +39.3% 83% 83% +6.8%
≤90d 12 +54.0% +39.3% 83% 83% +6.8%
all 12 +54.0% +39.3% 83% 83% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.3% 83% +6.8%
10% +26.0% 83% -3.4%
15% +13.8% 67% -12.8%
20% +2.7% 42% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +99% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$50 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 34¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $38 +$14 +36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +139%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $48 +$23 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 11h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $38 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 30h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 35h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.08 · official $14.08 (match) · 25 history records