trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 08 | $24 | +$4 | +17% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 14 | $42 | +$4 | +8% |
| Senators vs. Red Wings | Apr 09 | $1 | +$2 | +117% |
| Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 26 | $14 | +$2 | +17% |
| Rockets vs. Bulls | Mar 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers | Mar 23 | $2 | +$2 | +92% |
| Spread: Raptors (-2.5) | Mar 23 | $101 | +$101 | +100% |
| Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers | Mar 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Kings | Mar 22 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Utah vs. Stars | Mar 17 | $2 | +$2 | +144% |
| Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers | Mar 15 | $1 | +$1 | +61% |
| Timberwolves vs. Warriors | Mar 14 | $2 | +$1 | +45% |
| Ducks vs. Maple Leafs | Mar 14 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Grizzlies vs. 76ers | Mar 11 | $2 | +$1 | +67% |
| Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$82.5 in January? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 100% | 100% | +5.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 100% | 100% | +5.6% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +19.5% | +8.1% | 70% | 60% | +43.6% |
| all | 15 | +17.9% | +6.6% | 73% | 60% | +42.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +6.6% | 60% | +42.2% |
| 10% | -3.6% | 47% | +28.6% |
| 15% | -12.9% | 47% | +16.2% |
| 20% | -21.4% | 40% | +4.8% |