Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D1 0xd1d9…5896 sports 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,896 (+11%) realized +$8,937 · open +$2,959
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%66W / 100L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$641per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$835est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$11,221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$812
7 days−$3,685
14 days−$818
30 days−$633
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$16,793
other 25% −$2,361
crypto 6% −$1,745
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +73.0% +56.5% 43% 43% -32.9%
≤30d 20 +54.5% +39.7% 40% 40% -12.3%
≤90d 135 -24.2% -31.4% 27% 27% -26.4%
all 166 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 38% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 38% -0.4%
10% -19.3% 38% -9.9%
15% -27.1% 37% -18.6%
20% -34.2% 36% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$690) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$811 vs −$438 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$11,221
Realized+$8,937
Unrealized+$2,959
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses66 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$835
Open positions1
Markets (closed)166 / 168
History coverage444d
Avg bet$641
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 81¢ $8,262 $11,221 +$2,959 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $607 +$345 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $981 +$559 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,080 +$408 +38%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,494 −$1,463 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,208 −$2,185 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,474 −$1,458 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $959 +$516 +54%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,747 +$1,695 +97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,000 −$1,980 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,007 −$983 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$1,562 +1519%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $297 −$14 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $396 −$300 -76%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $5,204 +$3,459 +66%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $61 +$185 +306%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $203 +$167 +82%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $154 −$150 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $511 +$1,282 +251%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $102 +$210 +206%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $304 +$251 +82%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 17 $343 +$307 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 17 $202 +$115 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 16 $509 −$500 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 16 $509 −$500 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $1,121 −$1,100 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $203 −$200 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,822 +$7,271 +399%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $203 −$200 -98%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $308 −$300 -97%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $715 −$700 -98%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $204 +$485 +237%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $407 +$562 +138%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $307 −$300 -98%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $264 −$60 -23%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $304 −$300 -99%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 09 $308 −$300 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $102 +$195 +191%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $710 +$635 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $205 −$200 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, P May 02 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Marwan Rahiki vs. Ollie Schmid (Featherweight, Main C May 02 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 26 $492 −$485 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $8,361 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $953 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $607 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $981 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $507 38h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,080 45h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,494 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,208 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,474 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,475 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $959 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $1,747 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1,010 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 69¢ $989 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $198 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $274 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,665 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $331 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 6d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 BUY 4¢ $26 6d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $79 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $204 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $282 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $297 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 43¢ $102 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 44¢ $203 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 57¢ $602 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,220.96 · official $11,222.33 (match) · 443 history records