Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1d9…a1b2 crypto 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 1190d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,545 (-6%) realized −$5,542 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate76%104W / 33L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$653per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days+$123
14 days+$123
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$280
other 19% −$2,781
economics 12% −$549
tech 2% −$980
world 2% −$328
sports 1% −$507
politics 1% −$142
finance 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.8% -12.1% 57% 57% +9.2%
≤30d 7 -2.8% -12.1% 57% 57% +9.2%
≤90d 20 -5.1% -14.1% 75% 30% -18.9%
all 137 -2.9% -12.1% 76% 13% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 13% -15.0%
10% -20.5% 8% -23.1%
15% -28.2% 7% -30.5%
20% -35.2% 4% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$636) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$234 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1190d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized−$5,542
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses104 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)137 / 142
History coverage1190d
Avg bet$653
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $290 $288 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $236 +$218 +92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $44 +$47 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 16 $178 +$15 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 16 $100 +$1 +1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $597 −$597 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 06 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 02 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 02 $7 $0 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 02 $12 −$4 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 29? Apr 02 $385 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $345 +$40 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $342 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $392 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $378 +$14 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $437 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $432 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Mar 17 $63 −$63 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Mar 17 $509 −$509 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale? Mar 17 $1,033 −$1,030 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $431 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $200 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $217 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $300 +$12 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $206 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $205 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $317 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $304 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 7? Mar 09 $315 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $212 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $350 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 04 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 25 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 25 $4 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 25 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 25 $13 −$3 -26%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 24 $2,177 +$42 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $909 +$35 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $894 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $888 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $862 +$27 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $60 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $291 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $24 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $102 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $78 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 98¢ $100 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $236 52d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $194 72d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $9 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 35¢ $393 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $72 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $313 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $340 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.25 · official $457.25 (match) · 514 history records