Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D1 0xd1d8…af7d world 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$8 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate43%25W / 33L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$1
other 29% +$3
politics 3% +$1
economics 2% +$1
sports 2% +$2
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 75% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 64% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 21 -1.3% -10.7% 43% 0% -9.1%
all 58 +0.4% -9.2% 43% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 9% -8.9%
10% -17.9% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses25 / 33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage492d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $45 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $42 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $2 $0 -19%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $3 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Laura Donnelly win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 20 Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in May? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 05 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 18 $1 $0 +14%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 18 $9 $0 +3%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $8 $0 -1%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 Apr 29 $6 $0 +0%
Liberals win majority in Canadian election? Apr 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 29 $6 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 21 $1 $0 -30%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $5 +$1 +18%
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? Mar 27 $1 $0 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $33 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $32 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $23 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $18 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $14 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $45 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $37 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $28 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $11 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $46 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $45 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $45 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $23 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.28 · official $33.18 (match) · 182 history records