Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:06:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1d8…cf06 other 271 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$130 (+1%) realized +$131 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%95W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$1,442
14 days−$1,195
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$737
sports 26% +$206
crypto 13% +$350
world 5% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -60.2% -64.0% 17% 16% -35.6%
≤30d 248 -17.8% -25.6% 36% 31% -11.7%
≤90d 256 -16.4% -24.3% 37% 32% -10.2%
all 256 -16.4% -24.3% 37% 32% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 32% -10.2%
10% -31.6% 29% -18.8%
15% -38.2% 25% -26.7%
20% -44.2% 21% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$18 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses95 / 161
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)256 / 271
History coverage31d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$8 +156%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +202%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$19 +185%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 +$24 +194%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $18 −$14 -78%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $41 +$42 +101%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $16 +$25 +153%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 +$13 +246%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$20 +88%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 Jun 14 $347 −$76 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $179 −$11 -6%
Will Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CD Moquegua win on 2026-05-29? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kahrabaa Ismailia FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Croatia vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Germany vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Paderborn 1 - 0 Wolfsburg? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ta Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia and Herzegovina 2 - 0 North Macedonia? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-05-31? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 1 VfB Stuttgart? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 2 VfB Stuttgart? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Finland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56 and 57 million views on day 4 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Paderborn 2 - 0 Wolfsburg? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $107 −$15 -14%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? Jun 14 $71 −$53 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 13h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY 9¢ $17 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $13 15h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $71 15h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 15h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 15h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $5 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $36 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $4 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $12 16h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 16h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 AND Will Spai BUY 4¢ $6 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will BUY 15¢ $51 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 10¢ $5 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 50¢ $20 27h
Sweden to win the second half? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 30h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 98¢ $41 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $18 31h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $18 31h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $0 32h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 33h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $22 33h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 34h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 752 history records