Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:28:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1d7…4ab3 crypto 505 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-4%) realized −$87 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate75%377W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$71
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -13.4% -21.7% 70% 52% -21.3%
≤30d 245 -6.7% -15.6% 72% 61% -15.0%
≤90d 504 -4.2% -13.3% 75% 58% -13.2%
all 504 -4.2% -13.3% 75% 58% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 58% -13.2%
10% -21.6% 32% -21.5%
15% -29.2% 20% -29.1%
20% -36.1% 12% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses377 / 127
Open positions1
Markets (closed)504 / 505
History coverage54d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 504 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Down 71¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 124 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.98 · official $4.61 (match) · 914 history records