Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1d5…8d93 sports 62 markets active 13h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$200 (-5%) realized −$200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%33W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$361
7 days−$350
14 days−$249
30 days−$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$249
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +14.1% +3.3% 52% 52% -18.8%
≤30d 62 +14.3% +3.4% 53% 53% -15.7%
≤90d 62 +14.3% +3.4% 53% 53% -15.7%
all 62 +14.3% +3.4% 53% 53% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.4% 53% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -6.5% 52% -23.7%
15% -15.5% 48% -31.1%
20% -23.8% 40% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$56 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses33 / 29
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage8d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $244 −$235 -96%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $138 −$138 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$13 +119%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $16 +$8 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $84 +$59 +71%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $82 +$13 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $211 −$211 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$21 +351%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $37 −$25 -68%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $15 +$16 +113%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $46 +$55 +119%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 +$18 +60%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $34 +$116 +344%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$112 +534%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $37 +$24 +65%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $136 +$56 +42%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $20 +$19 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $181 +$79 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $214 +$182 +85%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $19 +$11 +60%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $32 +$23 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $99 −$99 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $23 −$23 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $148 −$148 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $48 +$72 +152%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $39 +$28 +72%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $211 −$72 -34%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $116 +$42 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $35 +$16 +47%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $18 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $16 +$5 +29%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $197 +$110 +56%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $16 −$11 -67%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $56 +$32 +57%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $14 +$30 +211%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $12 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $10 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $4 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $2 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $19 13h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $4 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $5 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $37 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $5 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $7 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $108 14h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 46¢ $68 15h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $70 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 45¢ $11 17h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 86¢ $82 18h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $5 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 45¢ $3 19h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $22 19h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 57¢ $14 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $33 20h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $19 20h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $16 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $6 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $6 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $3 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $3 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $4 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $3 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records