Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:43:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1d0…aaac other 113 markets active 3h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$162 (-0%) realized −$163 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate21%23W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,131per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$746now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$21
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$144
politics 43% −$69
sports 9% +$64
culture 2% −$2
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$6
finance 1% +$2
world 0% −$35
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -11.0% -19.5% 6% 0% -10.0%
all 112 -1.6% -10.9% 21% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 7% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,359) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$746
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses23 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,131
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $744 $746 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,879 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $1,403 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,249 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,524 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,747 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,658 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,405 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $364 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $595 +$3 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $460 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $447 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $824 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $4,719 −$5 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,702 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,436 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $1,428 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,828 −$4 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,647 −$3 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,464 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,492 −$3 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 05 $1,423 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,291 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $2,577 −$3 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 02 $857 +$2 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $2,711 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,495 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,354 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,340 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $2,549 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,474 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $5,425 −$5 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $630 2h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $631 4h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $656 7h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $657 9h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $745 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,001 4d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,002 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,400 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,402 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,400 6d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,403 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,315 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,317 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,306 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,308 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,247 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,249 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,174 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,176 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,034 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,035 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,036 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,037 15d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 15d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,087 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,218 16d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,220 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $460 19d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $460 19d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $446 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $745.61 · official $745.61 (match) · 334 history records