Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:04:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1ce…8945 sports 697 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,087 (-12%) realized −$1,085 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%341W / 350L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$93
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$827
crypto 10% +$41
politics 3% −$281
other 2% −$58
finance 1% +$11
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 27% -64.9%
≤30d 11 -27.5% -34.4% 27% 27% -64.9%
≤90d 399 -9.8% -18.4% 47% 47% -20.1%
all 691 -9.8% -18.3% 49% 49% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 49% -20.4%
10% -26.2% 47% -28.0%
15% -33.3% 43% -34.9%
20% -39.8% 38% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,085
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses341 / 350
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions5
Markets (closed)691 / 697
History coverage147d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit Jun 15 $10 +$8 +75%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $4 +$11 +271%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 03 $21 −$21 -99%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 03 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 03 $10 +$9 +90%
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim May 02 $10 +$10 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) May 02 $10 +$7 +67%
Map Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) May 02 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, P May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) May 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $10 +$9 +86%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) May 01 $10 +$11 +109%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 01 $20 +$19 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $10 +$17 +165%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Apr 30 $19 −$19 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Apr 29 $10 +$10 +97%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks Apr 27 $39 +$73 +186%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will David Bailey be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 27 $9 +$7 +75%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 26 $10 +$9 +88%
UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Jackson McVey (Middleweight, Prel Apr 26 $10 +$6 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela (Welterweight, Prel Apr 26 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Jeremiyah Love be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 24 $30 +$51 +169%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cl Apr 22 $10 +$9 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 28h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $27 32h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $10 37h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Pit BUY No 56¢ $10 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $10 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 29¢ $9 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- BUY 26¢ $4 4d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $10 43d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Toronto Blue Jays 55¢ $21 43d
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster 63¢ $30 44d
Map Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs FULL SENSE (+1.5) BUY T1 41¢ $10 45d
UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Kody Steele 59¢ $10 45d
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) BUY Ben Johnston 58¢ $10 45d
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, P BUY Kevin Christian 33¢ $5 45d
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelim BUY Brando Pericic 50¢ $10 45d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, BUY Carlos Prates 52¢ $10 45d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) BUY G2 46¢ $20 45d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION 53¢ $10 46d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Toronto Blue Jays 39¢ $10 46d
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) BUY Celtics 50¢ $10 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.33 · official $20.33 (match) · 1556 history records