Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1ce…d600 crypto 94 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-4%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate60%56W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -24.1% -31.4% 43% 29% -47.8%
≤30d 7 -24.1% -31.4% 43% 29% -47.8%
≤90d 94 -9.6% -18.2% 60% 23% -17.5%
all 94 -9.6% -18.2% 60% 23% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 23% -17.5%
10% -26.0% 12% -25.4%
15% -33.2% 5% -32.6%
20% -39.7% 3% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses56 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)94 / 94
History coverage44d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 94 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 04 $37 −$29 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 04 $46 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 04 $17 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 04 $36 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 04 $45 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 04 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 03 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 03 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 03 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 03 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 03 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 03 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 03 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 03 $33 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 03 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 03 $13 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 03 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 03 $19 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 03 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 03 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 03 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 03 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 03 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 03 $17 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 03 $22 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 03 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 03 $35 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 03 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 03 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 03 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 03 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 03 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 03 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 03 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 03 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 03 $11 +$4 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $11 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $6 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $9 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $21 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 516 history records