trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -3.3% | -12.5% | 0% | 0% | -11.1% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 0% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -1.9% | -11.2% | 0% | 0% | -10.1% |
| all | 26 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 31% | 0% | -10.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.6% | 0% | -10.3% |
| 10% | -19.2% | 0% | -18.9% |
| 15% | -27.0% | 0% | -26.7% |
| 20% | -34.2% | 0% | -33.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $27 | $27 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+7%) |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $9 | −$1 | -10% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 27 | $111 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 25 | $59 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $40 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 23 | $14 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 22 | $4 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 24 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? | May 28 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 10? | May 10 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | May 10 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | May 10 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 09 | $15 | −$2 | -16% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? | Apr 04 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Southampton be relegated? | Apr 03 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 | Apr 01 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the third most seats in the next Canad | Mar 31 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Solana hit $190 in March? | Mar 24 | $15 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 23 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? | Mar 21 | $15 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 20 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? | Mar 10 | $14 | $0 | -0% |