Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1c9…a58b crypto 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-10%) realized −$25 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$12
crypto 27% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -31.9% -38.4% 41% 41% -44.4%
≤30d 27 -31.9% -38.4% 41% 41% -44.4%
≤90d 27 -31.9% -38.4% 41% 41% -44.4%
all 27 -31.9% -38.4% 41% 41% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.4% 41% -44.4%
10% ← realistic here -44.3% 33% -49.7%
15% -49.7% 15% -54.6%
20% -54.6% 7% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $95 $106 +$11 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +84%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.60 · official $105.60 (match) · 62 history records