Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:53:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1c3…73fd other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$480 (-16%) realized −$477 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$341
14 days−$381
30 days−$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$398
weather 6% −$55
sports 6% −$40
crypto 3% −$25
world 1% −$40
politics 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -38.6% -44.5% 20% 12% -28.5%
≤30d 49 -43.5% -48.9% 22% 12% -28.4%
≤90d 49 -43.5% -48.9% 22% 12% -28.4%
all 49 -43.5% -48.9% 22% 12% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.9% 12% -28.4%
10% -53.8% 8% -35.2%
15% -58.2% 6% -41.5%
20% -62.3% 4% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$477
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 38
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage28d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $22 $20 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $104 −$10 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $140 −$9 -6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee Jun 20 $9 −$6 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day Jun 19 $9 −$8 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $57 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET Jun 19 $13 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day Jun 19 $41 −$20 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $58 +$26 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $49 −$35 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $262 +$24 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $14 −$13 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $37 −$3 -7%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $244 −$108 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $84 +$19 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $52 −$7 -13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $237 −$95 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $146 −$25 -17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$30 +101%
Will MrBeast's next video get 45 million or more views on day 2? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 +$1 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $75 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $17 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 -1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53 and 54 million views on day 4 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $48 −$46 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$2 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $137 +$24 +18%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Sussex Jun 02 $51 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 28? May 27 $13 −$12 -96%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $99 −$8 -8%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 26 $103 −$5 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $52 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down on May 25? May 25 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $15 −$14 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $131 −$9 -7%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $49 +$35 +71%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 24? May 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24? May 23 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $95 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $104 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $104 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $111 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $131 16h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee SELL Yes 0¢ $1 18h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee SELL Yes 0¢ $3 19h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $140 22h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee BUY Yes 1¢ $9 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 42h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day SELL Yes 0¢ $1 42h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day BUY Yes 4¢ $9 43h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $12 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $23 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $23 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $21 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day SELL Yes 6¢ $21 2d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day BUY Yes 11¢ $41 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $40 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $43 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $22 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $14 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $286 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.49 · official $89.50 (match) · 116 history records