Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd1c2…5b61 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$156 (+12%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%26W / 49L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$65
14 days+$219
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$167
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -13.0% -21.2% 32% 32% -1.2%
≤30d 75 +3.1% -6.7% 35% 35% +2.4%
≤90d 75 +3.1% -6.7% 35% 35% +2.4%
all 75 +3.1% -6.7% 35% 35% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 35% +2.4%
10% -15.7% 35% -7.4%
15% -23.8% 35% -16.3%
20% -31.3% 35% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$16 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses26 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage21d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$39 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $23 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $24 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$59 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$56 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$62 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$58 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$56 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$50 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$45 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$47 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$57 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$59 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $24 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 344 history records